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Bitcoin and gold are often seen as competing stores of value, one rooted in thousands of years of tradition, the other in digital innovation. But what if they weren’t rivals at all? What if, instead, they were part of a cause-and-effect relationship, one that savvy investors could leverage? Some analysts suggest that gold’s macro-driven rallies often lead bitcoin’s surges by about 90 to 180 days. With gold having made a strong move, could Bitcoin be coiling for its next big breakout?
Let’s break down the data, the ETF shift, and what it all means for investors.
Gold Leads, Bitcoin Follows: A 100-Day Rule?
A growing body of analysis, including standout work by Jack Green and Joe Consorti, reveals a striking trend: Bitcoin tends to follow gold’s macro-driven strength with a lag of 3 to 6 months. When gold rallies, often amid falling yields, rising liquidity, and a weakening dollar (DXY), Bitcoin typically surges shortly after, albeit with more volatility and magnitude.
Recent market movements mirror this historical behavior. Gold has enjoyed a significant rally since early 2024, outperforming Bitcoin by a wide margin. As of May 12, 2025:
- Gold YTD: +20%
- Bitcoin YTD: +10%
But zooming out reveals the power of bitcoin’s delayed response. Over 5 years, gold has nearly doubled, which is impressive, until you compare it to BTC’s gain over1,000%.
ETF Flows Tell a Story of Sentiment Shift
One of the clearest signs of this rotation is in ETF flows.
According to new research from Standard Chartered Bank, investors are pulling capital from gold ETFs and reallocating to Bitcoin ETFs, a trend not seen at this scale since the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered notes that this shift in capital allocation is a strong signal of Bitcoin’s growing credibility as a macro hedge.
Bitcoin ETF flows have surged ahead of gold ETF flows, with divergence widening sharply in early 2025. This aligns with Kendrick’s call for BTC to reach $120K by summer and possibly $200K by year-end.
Investor sentiment is tilting. Gold’s role as a hedge is being challenged by a faster, more liquid, and globally accessible alternative.
Bitcoin Surpassed $100K: Calm Before the Storm?
Despite a quiet period in trading activity, Bitcoin is showing signs of strength, with a current price over $100K and a market cap of $2.04T (as of May 12, 2025).
This “calm” comes as Bitcoin continues to consolidate near its highs. But if the 100-day lag from gold’s breakout holds true, the digital asset could be gearing up for another explosive move. Bitcoin often behaves like a coiled spring, especially after periods when gold has led and BTC has lagged.
Why Bitcoin Could Outperform in 2025
Several macro tailwinds support the Bitcoin thesis:
- Global liquidity is rising, favoring Bitcoin’s risk-on profile.
- DXY is weakening, typically bullish for both BTC and gold.
- Yields are falling, reducing opportunity cost for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
- ETFs have unlocked institutional flows, accelerating adoption.
Moreover, Bitcoin has one advantage gold doesn’t: a smaller market cap and a much larger untapped investor base. This gives BTC asymmetric upside as new capital enters the space.
In short, if gold’s rally is real, Bitcoin’s turn is next, and historically, its moves are larger and faster.
Bitcoin’s Time to Shine?
The writing’s on the wall. Gold has had its run, and Bitcoin is now poised to play catch-up, potentially with explosive consequences. With ETF inflows accelerating, macro conditions aligning, and a well-documented 100-day lead from gold, the digital gold narrative is once again in focus.
For long-term investors, this isn’t a time to chase momentum, it’s a time to understand the macro dynamics and position accordingly. If you’re ready to hedge like the institutions, not just with gold, but with the digital future. Open your BitcoinIRA¹ account today.