What has been in the air surrounding Bitcoin and China from the start of the New Year has indeed been confirmed on 11th of January. Rumors about China moving forward with regulation and capital controls on Bitcoin are proven to be true. While the volume from Chinese exchanges remained fairly constant or increased, the price of Bitcoin took a hit. These regulations will need a good 2-3 years for formulation and taking complete effect. But the news came as a shock to the market and has seen the market reacting very adversely. The price has dropped to around $750 with little support. Let’s diagnose the crash and what we can expect further from here:
When did this start?
Chinese economy is a credit fueled economy and they have observed that the currency generated has been steadily finding its way out of the country. With patterns where Bitcoin prices increase with Yuan devaluation, they have figured out that Bitcoin was the medium. To confirm the same the authorities have closely monitored the digital currency with thoughts of regulating it. China as such has strong capital controls and conversion of local currency into foreign currency is well regulated. However Bitcoin having a peer to peer nature doesn’t get accounted in these regulations. Hence Chinese authorities have decided to employ strict capital controls over Bitcoin. These measures require identification and completion of detailed forms to convert yuan into Bitcoin or invest in Bitcoin.
How is PBOC regulating?
China’s financial regulators are reportedly seeking opinions on how to regulate the trading of bitcoin and have contacted the exchanges on the same. One of the proposed methods may include setting up a depository platform. Chinese exchange BTCC – one of three leading bitcoin trading platforms spoke to by the People’s Bank of China last Friday. They have explicitly stated that they adhere to “strict AML/KYC policies and it’s not possible to evade the capital controls through their channel”. With Peoples Bank of China probing deeply into matters, we can expect strict regulations to be implemented very soon.
Diagnosis and predictions:
Bitcoin has been trading at peak prices after a sustained bull run last year. During this time, many investors moved their funds into the digital currency for long term holding. With the fears triggering a complete crash, most of the investors decided to exit the market furthering the price drop. With the price now lingering around $760, we can see one of the following two things happening.
If the price consolidates and moves up with momentum and breaks the all the time high, then Bitcoin can head straight to $2000 levels within the next couple of months.
On the Bearish side, $560-$600 range is a heavy support zone that held the prices on multiple occasions. Once market breaches these levels, a strong crash taking Bitcoin to $250 can be expected.
How the market would choose to react now and what side Bitcoin decides to rally again, only time will tell.