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Global investors watch out for Italian referendum, Bitcoin to get the push?

The European region has always been a major Bitcoin market mover in times of economic or political crisis. This is evident from what happened with Brexit this year. The pre-Brexit tension and the post-Brexit shocks caused turbulent economic times for European residents. The Brexit from EU caused Bitcoin prices to spike up considerably and make it the safe haven against the adverse market reactions. December 4th can witness a similar push in Bitcoin prices as EU will witness Italian referendum. While market is waiting to for what might happen, let’s look into the dynamics of the referendum:

Italian Referendum:

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On December 4th, the global markets should be prepared for an economic tremor as Italy prepares for a referendum. The Italian citizens would vote on changing resolutions to amend constitutions. This also involves absolving the power given to State, Parliament and Bureaucrats. The sale of Italian government bonds and securities has been on the rise anticipating the crisis.  Italy currently has eight troubled banks currently that tank if the referendum doesn’t turn out in favor. Adding to the tension, Prime minister Matteo Renzi declared that he will quit if people vote against the resolution.

Impending market chaos:

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The aftermath of the controversial referendum can be disastrous as Italy is one of EU’s biggest debtors. Owing to bad lending practices, the country’s borrowing has led to financial instability as many banks are under heavy pressure now.

Financial Times reporter Rachel Sanderson stated,

“Italy’s banks have €360bn of problem loans versus €225bn of equity on their books after successive regulators and governments failed to tackle a bloated financial system where profitability was weakened by a stagnant economy and exacerbated by fraudulent lending at several institutions.”

How the markets will react to this would surely be of interest for all global investors.

How Bitcoin will react:

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If the Italian referendum goes sour, it could mean investors could turn to possible uncorrelated assets such as bitcoin and Gold. Just before the Brexit vote, Bitcoin spiked to $675. As soon as the decision became public, global stock markets began to plunge. However, gold and bitcoin values went up significantly as investors turned to safer hedges. Just one week before the vote took place, the San Francisco-based exchange Coinbase saw a 55% rise in British registrants. After the vote was out, it was noted that a 350% increase in UK sales of Bitcoin. Even during the fears of possible ‘Grexit’- Greece Exit, there was good increase of volumes of Bitcoin. Basing on these historical observations, it is very possible that we might see something similar during the referendum.

Is Bitcoin an exit option for recession stuck economies?

Right from its inception, Bitcoin’s development has been quick and promising. The world was quick to recognize its disruptive nature and Bitcoin’s adoption became fluid. While the status of Bitcoin as an adaptable universal currency still remains ambiguous, it surely has proven its utility. For economies that have been struggling, people have sought to Bitcoin as an alternate in more occasions than one. Let’s look into the situations where Bitcoin actually did better than just saving face in times of crisis:

Fears of Greece exiting Eurozone or Grexit:

In 2015, Greece was in severe recession and in a debt of nearly 1.5 billion euros to creditors. Defaulting on timely payment of the credit might have resulted in Greece leaving the Eurozone. The fears looming the Grexit prompted people to look for alternative methods to pay for Goods and Services. With the local currency inflating at phenomenal rate, there was a clear uptick in the Bitcoin trading. This was a direct result of people investing in Bitcoin so as to hold value against their currency.

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Grexit Pushing prices higher and recently Argentinian policies increasing the volumes of trading

As an alternate to monetary reforms enforced, most cryptocurrency supporters argued that Greece could have opted a digital asset model. That is Government could have used decentralized currency to pay pensioners and Government servants initially. Government assets would back this currency and hence can be repaid later. Though Greece took a different path, it is evident from trading volumes that people took to Bitcoin in the time of crisis.

Argentina and Financial repression:

Argentina has experienced the crippling effects of 2008 housing collapse and continued to feel the jitters even in the next decade. Amid the downward spiral of economic decline, the government announced stringent financial restrictions in 2011. This restricts people from buying foreign currency and to send money overseas. This financial repression made some Argentineans to adopt the cryptocurrency as an escape route from government controls.

A pleasant Government change has lead to revoking of reforms,  accommodating better policies to save the country. While the economy is recovering, there is an increase in volume and number of companies operating with Bitcoin. While Bitcoin has supported people during the repressive phase, let’s see how it would help Argentina to reconstruct its economy.

Brazil and Kenya:

Rising volumes in Brazilian Bitcoin Trading
Rising volumes in Brazilian Bitcoin Trading

Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of soft commodities and it has been in recession for over three years. With its economy weakening, the exporters aren’t getting good value for their exports. Hence they have resorted to payments in bitcoin so as to maintain their value of profits. This resulted in the increased volumes during the harvest period of the soft commodities crop cycle.

Kenya has a high population of unbanked citizens and high micropayment transactions in mobile systems. While Government is tightening its hold on local businesses through tax monitoring, Bitcoin is instrumental in building a regulated system. Major wallets like Bitpesa are actually helping the Government to setup a regulated system. This would allow the businesses to flourish and also be monitored for tax irregularities, if any.

Hence we can see that Bitcoin indeed has been crucial in strengthening or restructuring weak economies in many cases.