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A Research Establishes a Relationship Between Activities in Bitcoin Forum and the Changes on the Price of Bitcoins.

Recently a study conducted in South Korea found out that forum comments can be used to predict the variations in the price of Bitcoins to an accuracy of over 80%. The research paper is entitled “When Bitcoin encounters information in an online forum: Using text mining to analyze user opinions and predict value fluctuation”

The research paper was produced by five researchers from two universities in South Korea; Korea University and Kangnam University. The study which was supported by the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education, Science, ICT and Future Planning was also funded by the Korean government through the Institute for Information and Communication Technology promotion (IITP).


On a brief of the research and its significance in predicting Bitcoin prices, the authors mentioned in the research that;

In order to predict the price fluctuation of Bitcoin, we analyze the comments posted in the Bitcoin online forum. Our approach involved extracting keywords from Bitcoin-related user comments posted on the online forum with the aim of analytically predicting the price and extent of transaction fluctuation of the currency.”

What method of data collection and analysis was used in this Research?

The accuracy of the findings of a research depends to a big extent on the methods used for data collection and analysis. According to the authors, the method used involved data extraction, data gathering, data analysis and development of models. Models would be tested to simulate how the prediction process works. The research main data involved keywords of user comments in major bitcoin forums and number of bitcoin transaction against their corresponding prices. The study covered data collected for a period of three years from 2013 to 2016. The study whose data was analyzed by an artificial intelligent model established the relationship between Bitcoin transaction count and price based on the extracted keywords and quantification.

High level of accuracy:

The study produced models with very high levels of accuracy in relating bitcoin price trends with the trends of the activities happening in Bitcoin Forums. The authors found out that online user postings influenced Bitcoin transaction which affects Bitcoin prices in return. The authors said in a statement that,

We analyzed the user comments posted on a Bitcoin online forum to predict the fluctuation in the bitcoin price and transaction count. Based on the easily accessible online data, the proposed method predicted the bitcoin price fluctuation with an accuracy rate of over 80%.”

Do the models apply for all digital currencies?

The researchers were so confident that their models can be applied to predict the price of any digital currency. However, they suggested ways for improving the accuracy of the results. The researchers mainly emphasized the use of quantitative analysis on the search results or relevant content. This kind of research can also be adapted in other fields apart from digital currencies.


Bitcoin Unlimited Creator: Only On Chain Scaling Helps Real Life Use Cases.

Bitcoin Unlimited is a full node software client for the Bitcoin network. It removes the limit, allowing the users to determine the block size by consensus.The Bitcoin scaling debate is still ongoing since no decision has yet been made.

Bitcoin Unlimited developer Andrew Stone believes that on chain scaling and understanding how people use bitcoin are the most important issues to address. Solutions like SegWit and Lightning networks are good, he said, but they are not addressing the right problems the good way.

The extent the Scaling debate has reached

The Scaling debate has been on for the last two years and it is still heating up again to determine how many transactions can be put into each block on the bitcoin blockchain during the trading and transactions of bitcoins. In many bitcoin forums, there are mixed reactions from people but these reactions have a forward leaning trend towards Bitcoin Unlimited. As for the final decision, we are yet to see what the miners will decide in the recent coming months.

How Scaling will affect the end users

To my own understanding and opinion, I think the Scaling will not affect the end users negatively but positively, since it will protect the growing network against spam transactions from bad actors and it will also enable the end users to know the number of transactions that they are supposed to put or place in each block chain during the bitcoin transactions. Although the latter statement holds true, there are of course challenges with Bitcoin scaling. Some of the challenges will come in the form of Decentralization arguments, Minimum system requirements being undefined, Known unknowns and processes. This effect was pointed out by an undisclosed redditor saying,

There would also be a related BIP describing the basic requirements for a full node in terms of RAM, CPU processing, storage and network upload bandwidth, based on experiments — not simulations. This would help determine quantitatively how many nodes could propagate information rapidly enough to maintain Bitcoin’s decentralized global consensus at a given block size.

Scaling versus Fork: What are the connections?


Scaling refers to determining the number of transactions that are supposed to be placed into each block chain and Fork simply occurs when two miners find a valid hash within a short space of time. But the connections come in when the network splits into two, where a half of the network believes one block is the next to be included in the blockchain ledger, the other half of the network believes in a different block.

With Bitcoin Unlimited seeming to be the next Bitcoin processing platform and protocol, it has to be seen how Bitcoin price will react.