bearish Archives

Is Ripple About to Partner with SWIFT?

Posted on March 1, 2019 | by [email protected]

Cryptocurrency analysts have been contemplating a Ripple/SWIFT partnership for the better part of two years. While some are committed to the idea that both platforms remain serious rivals, others are confident the two will eventually join hands and expand on each other’s technological capabilities.

What Put These Ideas in People’s Heads?

Last October, Ripple announced plans to attend the Sibos Conference. The event occurred in Sydney, Australia, and was hosted by representatives of SWIFT. Sibos features some of the biggest leaders in finance discussing technology and strategies for expanding the globe’s digital economy. The event spawned further rumors that both companies were brewing something big in secret.

However, neither venture has officiated plans to work with the other party. In fact, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently denied to Bloomberg that his company has any intention of partnering with SWIFT in the future, citing SWIFT’s inability to remain focused and up-to-date regarding the latest technology. He claimed SWIFT is not blockchain ready, which could ultimately get in the way of product development…

Working Behind the Curtains

Once again, there are whispers this could change. In late January, SWIFT took one step closer towards blockchain adoption by announcing that it would launch a proof-of-concept (PoC) gateway known as GPI Link that could allow the blockchain software firm R3 to connect SWIFT payments. The news came by way of the company’s CEO Gottfried Leibbrandt, who sat right next to Brad Garlinghouse on a joint panel at the Paris Fintech Forum.

Garlinghouse has commented that Ripple executes cross-border payments – just like SWIFT – but on a blockchain basis, which makes them a direct competitor. In addition, Garlinghouse claims that Ripple’s cross-border system xRapid is considerably faster than SWIFT, sometimes requiring only two minutes or less to initiate payments. He was also critical of SWIFT for being too “centralized,” and it sounds like a joint effort between both ventures is not meant to be.

Connecting the Dots

However, R3 has confirmed that SWIFT’s GPI is integrating Corda Settler, an open-source application designed to help users settle transactions with cryptographic proof. Traditional monies can be exchanged for cryptocurrency and vice versa, though at press time, the only virtual currency available for payment settlement through Corda is XRP, the official asset of Ripple.

This is again leading observers to speculate on whether Ripple and SWIFT will ever set aside their differences and work with each other, though it has not yet been confirmed whether SWIFT will utilize the crypto-based abilities of Corda. Leibbrandt has commented that problems often stem between banks and organizations that work in crypto due to ongoing volatility in the market, and thus he remains wary of XRP.

We’re Just Too Fast!

Garlinghouse fired back at these statements, claiming there was no risk of volatility considering how fast Ripple can initiate payments.

“I hear people talk about volatility, and I feel like they’re propagating misinformation,” he stated boldly. “Mathematically, there’s less volatility risk in an XRP transaction than there is in a fiat transaction.”

Adding even more fuel to the “rumors fire,” Garlinghouse has mentioned he is open to hiring Leibbbrandt – who is retiring from his position with SWIFT this summer – as a future member of Ripple’s growing team.

Behind the Cryptocurrency Dip: How Crypto Companies Are Coping

Posted on February 27, 2019 | by [email protected]

The bear market of 2018 shook the industry from top to bottom. The great shake out revealed some of the weaker hands among casual investors, and forced the hand of others near the top: a number of crypto companies began to lay oﬀ staﬀ, though the numbers, comparatively, were still better than in traditional industries.

Other companies went in the opposite direction and expanded staﬀ, generating revenue by loaning cash for crypto, ﬁnding a way to remain proﬁtable while avoiding the strategy of doubling down and buying the dip.

While crypto companies are tight lipped about the way their dealing with the bear, experts have ideas for how they can make the most of it.

Eric Piscini, the CEO of Citizens Reserve and the former blockchain lead for Deloitte, had some ideas for them. Writing for Coindesk, Piscini shared some strategies for ways that crypto companies could ride out the dip while positioning themselves – and the rest of us – for the inevitable return of the bull.

Investing At the Bottom

Piscini is of the opinion that now’s the time to buy the dip.

“If we haven’t reached the solstice of the crypto winter yet, we’re very close,” Piscini said. “Brighter and warmer days are coming soon. The early days of 2019 are the time to make bets on the best tokens and the best teams. I call it the new Rockefeller moment.”

Better Core Tech

The CEO also said that, as painful as it was, this was a much needed reminder that the point of crypto and blockchains isn’t the lambos and rides to the moon.

Right now, Piscini said, should essentially be treated as the equivalent of a rebuilding year for the industry.

“It may have taken a bear market to drive this point home to some, but blockchain is not about getting rich tomorrow,” he said. “We need to pay more attention to improvements in performance and scalability and pay less attention to new projects. #BUIDL is the new #HODL.”

A Killer Consumer App

Is there such a thing as the Instagram, Snapchat, or Facebook equivalent of a crypto app? We don’t know yet, and that’s an issue. We know what Blockchain can do, Piscini says, but he also asks: where’s the app that proves it?

“We’re still looking for the product that will bring blockchain’s value to the non-tech, non-business consumer audience,” says Piscini. “I’ve tried a few apps that purported to be killer apps, but the experience was so bad I wonder if the developers thought killer apps were supposed to kill their users. I survived, and I’m hoping for more and better next year.”

Bitcoin Bull Run staggered as Major Chinese Exchanges halt withdrawals temporarily

Posted on February 9, 2017 | by [email protected]

For the past couple of months, whenever Bitcoin price gets momentum and is approaching the all-time high, China has played a spoil sport in ruining the price rise. This happened once at the start of 2017 when the probing of Chinese authorities into the operational model of the exchanges tanked the prices all the way back to $750 from near all-time high. The story of Bitcoin on 9^th February is no different, the cryptocurrency was in a study Bull Run and the currency’s proponents were expecting a high breach sometime this week. While everything looked compact, the new announcement of the leading Chinese exchanges Huobi and OkCoin came up with an announcement that made the markets instantly bearish on the short term scale. Let’s dive deep into the details of what exactly happened:

The announcement:

Two of China’s top three Bitcoin exchanges Huobi and OkCoin announced that they will suspend Bitcoin and Litecoin withdrawals for a month effective immediately. During this one month period both the exchanges would set up automated monitoring systems and checks in place to prevent money laundering. While these restrictions are in place, Reminibi withdrawals wouldn’t be affected and no limit is set upon them. Both the exchanges indicated that the upgrade would be to combat “money laundering, exchange, pyramid schemes and other illegal activities”. No update was provided by BTC China on this front.

The reason behind the scrutiny:

China has been facing the problem of ‘Capital Flight’ for some time now. Implementation of ‘Capital Controls’ over various assets hasn’t been fruitful. During the course of 2016, Chinese Government has realized that while Yuan was being devalued, Bitcoin experienced unusual surge in prices. This was because investors were shifting their funds from traditional Chinese assets to Bitcoin. Chinese officials and PBOC have come to a conclusion that Bitcoin is being used for ‘Capital Flight’ and are keen to impose capital controls over the digital currency in 2017.

Effect on Bitcoin Price:

While the currency temporarily is experiencing a short term bearish trend, things would look better after a month’s period when the exchanges become fully functional. The impact of the move shouldn’t last long as Japan has already begun eating into China’s volumes owing to their growing adoption. When the Chinese exchanges imposed transaction fee and put a check on leverage available, the automated traders have sought Japanese exchanges as their new haven. After a little setback, technically Bitcoin market should be able to recover in quick time.

Bitcoin crashes as China acts up on regulations

Posted on January 11, 2017 | by [email protected]

What has been in the air surrounding Bitcoin and China from the start of the New Year has indeed been confirmed on 11^th of January. Rumors about China moving forward with regulation and capital controls on Bitcoin are proven to be true. While the volume from Chinese exchanges remained fairly constant or increased, the price of Bitcoin took a hit. These regulations will need a good 2-3 years for formulation and taking complete effect. But the news came as a shock to the market and has seen the market reacting very adversely. The price has dropped to around $750 with little support. Let’s diagnose the crash and what we can expect further from here:

When did this start?

Chinese economy is a credit fueled economy and they have observed that the currency generated has been steadily finding its way out of the country. With patterns where Bitcoin prices increase with Yuan devaluation, they have figured out that Bitcoin was the medium. To confirm the same the authorities have closely monitored the digital currency with thoughts of regulating it. China as such has strong capital controls and conversion of local currency into foreign currency is well regulated. However Bitcoin having a peer to peer nature doesn’t get accounted in these regulations. Hence Chinese authorities have decided to employ strict capital controls over Bitcoin. These measures require identification and completion of detailed forms to convert yuan into Bitcoin or invest in Bitcoin.

How is PBOC regulating?

China’s financial regulators are reportedly seeking opinions on how to regulate the trading of bitcoin and have contacted the exchanges on the same. One of the proposed methods may include setting up a depository platform. Chinese exchange BTCC – one of three leading bitcoin trading platforms spoke to by the People’s Bank of China last Friday. They have explicitly stated that they adhere to “strict AML/KYC policies and it’s not possible to evade the capital controls through their channel”. With Peoples Bank of China probing deeply into matters, we can expect strict regulations to be implemented very soon.

Diagnosis and predictions:

Bitcoin has been trading at peak prices after a sustained bull run last year. During this time, many investors moved their funds into the digital currency for long term holding. With the fears triggering a complete crash, most of the investors decided to exit the market furthering the price drop. With the price now lingering around $760, we can see one of the following two things happening.

Bullish side:

If the price consolidates and moves up with momentum and breaks the all the time high, then Bitcoin can head straight to $2000 levels within the next couple of months.

Bearish side:

On the Bearish side, $560-$600 range is a heavy support zone that held the prices on multiple occasions. Once market breaches these levels, a strong crash taking Bitcoin to $250 can be expected.

How the market would choose to react now and what side Bitcoin decides to rally again, only time will tell.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Hyperinflation to push the price higher?

Posted on October 18, 2016 | by [email protected]

Second week of October has started off with a break out propelling the market to over $620 level. The bullish trend continued with the market trading all the way to $640 before turning sideways on short term frame. The market has traded scantily over the $620-$630 region with no good residual volumes. While the long term setup still looks bullish, let’s see if hyperinflation can push the prices higher for the coming week:

Fundamental Key Points:

The adoption of the cryptocurrency and its underlying technology has always been fundamentally positive for the Bitcoin ecosystem. Here are few highlights of the past week fundamentals that might continue to have effect on the prices:

Bitcoin Trading on LocalBitcoins surges in Europe to all time high, turnover in Turkey and Venezuela explodes due to hyperinflation
Japan to drop Bitcoin sales tax by 8%
SEC Seeks Additional Comment on Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF
Polish Parliament Holds Public Consultation on Cryptocurrency
The Russian Government is Testing Blockchain for Document Storage
Bank Trials Show India’s Blockchain Interest on Rise

From a macro perspective, there has been an increase in the trading volumes of Bitcoin in countries like Venezuela that are facing hyperinflation. This is because of the devaluation of the local currency; people preferred to convert savings into Bitcoin. Economies facing recession might opt this as a way out to save value. How SEC might react to Winklevoss’s ETF request coupled by hyperinflation effects might have impact on prices of the currency.

Technical Analysis:

Long Term Trades:

The Long Term chart has been in an uptrend from the start of this year, with no sign of any set up change currently. The market has traded constantly over $630 with very low residual volumes in the range of $620 – $630. There is a strong possibility that the market might trade again in these levels to close the gap. This might be a chance to enter into a long term position around the zone of heavy support. The previous swing low of the market at $594 can be the stop with swing high at $770.89 as the target.

To get apt entry positions for the long term trade, let’s take a closer look:

On the daily chart, in the recent period the market has been trending in a channel. Eversince market failed to penetrate the $594 price due to heavy support; it has been trending upwards with middle Bollinger as support. Taking a position at middle Bollinger around $624 with $594 as stop loss and target $770 would be an ideal long term trade that can be executed with good support.

Short Term Trades:

On a daily chart, 100 SMA has now joined the zone of heavy support around $620, with the middle bolligner, 9, 13 and 34 SMAs. Market is looking to test this region before taking to the Bull Run.

On shorter time frame (4 Hrs), the Bollinger bands have broken out and the market is bearish. All the support averages have been broken and market is moving towards 100 SMA. Good short term trades with 100 SMA as target and $640 as a stop on bearish side would be feasible. Since market could to be sideways in $620- $630 range, short term trading from both sides would be feasible for some period.

While taking long term positions, keeping an eye on macro factors would be really helpful.